The Australian
Farmers have applauded a research breakthrough by Australian scientists linking temperatures in the Indian Ocean and rainfall in the southeastern states of Australia.
The researchers, who believe they have discovered what drives crippling drought, have detailed for the first time how a variable and irregular cycle of warming and cooling of ocean water dictates whether moisture-bearing winds are carried across the southern half of Australia.
"Our findings will help to improve seasonal rainfall forecasts and ... directly benefit water and agricultural management," said the research team's leader, Caroline Ummenhofer.
National Farmers Federation president David Crombie said farmers needed reliable weather forecasts to help them decide what to farm and when to farm it.
"These findings, if verified and supported through scientific review, could be the missing piece in the puzzle for Australia's farmers and their on-farm decision-making," he said.
The phenomenon discovered by the researchers, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, has been in a positive or neutral phase since 1992 -- the longest such period since records began in the late 19th century. According to the study, it indicates El Nino events do not directly drive drought, as previously thought.
"We needed to move away from historical comparisons of rainfall, to focus on accurate and reliable information on future weather patterns and events," Mr Crombie said. The NFF called on the Government to invest in the Bureau of Meteorology to make it a world leader in climate predictability and expand the computer models it relies on for seasonal and inter-seasonal forecasting.
"This needs to be plugged into sophisticated and state-of-the-art computer predictive modelling that Australians farmers and everyone else can have confidence in," Mr Crombie said.
"It would also render vital assistance to water catchment authorities and suppliers who service the daily needs of metropolitan Australia."
The team, co-led by Matthew England from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, includes researchers from the CSIRO and the University of Tasmania.